Indra’s Drishtikona (Viewpoint)

Crime and Reform

Posted : March 17, 2007 at 3:07 am [IST]

It is something very sweet to ears, but is difficult to believe. Arvind Kala, a journalist has put data proving the India’s falling crime rate in a feature, ‘Reforms reduce crime’:

India’s murder rate has fallen for the first time in half a century.

The number of murders in India shot up by nearly one-third in the 1960s, by another one-third in the 1970s, and by 55 per cent in the 1980s. In exact terms, murders shot up from 25,786 in 1984 to 39,171 in 1991. But then came the reform after years of economic stagnation. The number of murders has dropped since then. Last year saw 6,455 fewer murders in India compared to 1991 though the country’s population had grown an estimated 200 million in this time.

Cases of attempted murder have also fallen.

India’s falling murder rate indicates that our liberalised economy is enriching people. India’s fall in the crime rate cover other categories too.

The theft, burglary, or dacoit have all declined, perhaps as because 160 million people have risen above the poverty line in the last 15 years.

From 3.6 lakh in 1991, theft dropped to 2.7 lakh last year. Dacoities, similarly, have more than halved while robberies and burglaries have fallen by a third.

Arvinda Kala thinks the rising living standards are the reasons that desist people to commit crimes. Otherwise, a far larger Indian population in 2005 would not have accounted for fewer offences than a smaller 1991 population. Kala puts forward three factors that has reduced crime:

1. Higher incomes allow urban neighbourhoods to hire private guards.
2. Improved power generation since 1991 has resulted in the better illumination of streets, neighbourhoods, and homes that deters thefts and robberies.
3. Explosive growth in the use of technology to transfer money. India’s credit card users have risen to 43 million and thousands of ATMs have sprouted, and are growing by 25 per cent every year. Perhaps, the potentials thieves know that their risk mayn’t get properly rewarded.

But main thrust of Arvind is on the falling poverty that has triggered a fall in crime. Rising incomes did similarly drive down crime in America to a 30-year low too.

The rise in income has even raised the ambition of thieves. Fifteen years ago they used to target things like cycles or TV sets. Today, they’ve moved to high-value goods like motor vehicles. The last six years show the paradox of thefts falling by 12 per cent but auto thefts going up by 43 per cent. Worldwide, motor vehicle thefts are a hugely lucrative criminal activity. Their jumping number - nearly 60,000 in 1999 to around 86,000 last year in India - suggests that all-round rising incomes have moved criminals to another level.

Arvind cites Bihar as example. Bihar, as it is the poorest state of the country, accounted for one-third of the 1,099 kidnappings in 2003.

I don’t, however, agree with Kala. I discussed this issue with many of my friends. I couldn’t get even one who agrees with Avind Kala’s hypothesis.

Firstly, let us consider the case raised by Kala regarding the kidnappings in Bihar. How is that the number of kidnappings have suddenly come down with the new government who is sincerely trying to improve the law and order situation of the state? I am sure nothing has changed the economic condition of the people of the state in this short period in such a short period.

And what happens if the police don’t write the FIRs the basis of Kala’s record to keep the number of crimes low as desired by the politician bosses? Was that not the case when so many cruel killings in Nithari case went unnoticed and unaccounted for so long a time?

And then Mr. Kala himself mentions of increase in the number of car thefts. What about other technically intelligent crimes, frauds, cheatings, and laundering of taxpayers money? Has its number not increased exponentially? Basically, if we look at the high-end crimes, it has gone up many times higher. Perhaps, the crime as an act needs a redefining.
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Are these crimes?

- Indra

Category: Government Policy/Administration |