Bihar: Prediction of post-election scenario
Posted : February 20, 2005 at 6:58 pm [IST]
In a week or so, we shall know if there is any change in the destiny of Bihar. The exit poll after the second phase of the assembly election 2005 has brought some interest in the game. There is a great possibility of a hung house. The prospective winnable candidates are happy and excited, particularly independent ones. Their market price will soar high. They can get back the return on theirinvestment easily and quickly.
I am far away from the scene and missing the heat of the election time. But on day-to-day basis, I learn about the news perhaps earlier than those in India get it. At the local 12.30 PM here in US when the people in India are asleep, I can surf through all the newspapers. Zee TV-USA provides some news coverage too.
The election results may be totally surprising this time for Bihar too. Indian electorates did surprise in last election for Lok Shabha in 2004. However, the question if the present rule of Laloo-Rabri will continue though with smaller margin is more pertinent. Even if he continues, I am sure he shall be changing his track and go for development work. He is much more exposed today to good work being done by the governments in other states.
If the electorates decide otherwise who all may come in the driver seat. If Paswan comes, though the chances are little, he may also bring some development for Bihar. He is known as achiever as minister in center since 1996. However, he changes his alliance very fast for remaining in power. The Congress Party has become insignificant today, though it is fighting 80 seats. It can only get some more strength for it and decide to play a cementing force to bring Laloo and Ram Vilash together to keep NDA out.
A miracle may happen. If NDA wins with good majority and comes in power with Nitish as the chief minister, Bihar can hope for some change. He is a technocrat by education and an honest person. He performed well as the railway Minister in last government at the center. Bur, can the miracle happen? I hardly see it coming. BJP has become untouchable. It has not been able to present itself as a secular rightist party that it would have done. How can BJP think of winning an electionwithout Muslim votes, when the elections are won by 1-2%? Muslims constitute some 15% or so of the electorates. They vote in mass to a party that can defeat BJP. This time too, the community has decided to vote against BJP. Muslims are voting tactically. In seats where the main contest is between RJD and JD(U), the Muslims are voting en masse for the RJD. But in seats where the LJP or Congress has emerged as the strongest secularforce, their votes are also going to this alternative. Is it right for Muslims to vote in this fashion? Does it mean that BJP will never get the support of Muslims? Is it right for the country as whole? What short of price BJP will have to pay to get Muslims on their side? Cant the religions be isolated from the politics? Should not the national interest be the first priority? There are many questions. Perhaps all these could have been answered if universal quality education would have been ensured. A comment in Busines Week resonates in my mind-”40% of Indians drop out of school by age 10. Efforts to greatly expand education could determine whether India is a future economic superpower or if it will be burdened with the world’s biggest population of poor illiterates.”
How long will the nation wait for getting that possibility realized? Will the next government of Bihar ensure that?
- Indra
Category: Indian politics |
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